Obasanjo, Grandmaster Of Timing, Changes Calculations For 2019 By Jideofor Adibe

 I was already researching for an article on Obasanjo following his recent
successful defence of his PhD thesis at the National Open University of Nigeria
at the age of over 80 when the breaking news came that the ‘oracle at Ota’
had ‘bombed’ Buhari.
I have always been intrigued by the Obasanjo persona - a man that embodies
extreme contradictions - yet a trail blazer on many fronts. As a military Head
of State he handed over power to elected civilians in 1979 at a time when
such was a rarity in Africa. He became an instant global statesman by that singular action and has been able to leverage on it to grow even bigger in
global stature. Obasanjo’s think-tank - the Obasanjo Leadership Forum -
which he set up after his first coming - was one of the first think-tanks set up
by any former African leader. Obasanjo has also probably written more books
than any other African leader - and remains active and in high demand
globally as a mediator in regional conflicts, despite his age and shortcomings
at home.
Obasanjo’s attack on Buhari was not altogether unexpected. He has played a
leading role in the emergence and bringing down of all Nigerian civilian
presidents since the Second Republic. And even the military regimes that he
had no hand in propping to power such as IBB’s and Abacha’s (as far as
information in the public domain is concerned), he made uncomfortable - at
the opportune time. Based on his antecedents, many people felt that Obasanjo
moving on Buhari and his government was only a matter of time.
The early signs that Obasanjo might be positioning himself for an attack on
Buhari came at a lecture he delivered at Oxford University on Africa’s
transformative leaders on January 8 2018. Obasanjo omitted Buhari’s name in
what appeared to be a deliberate act (not that some of us believe that Buhari
qualifies to be included in the list). Not only that, when Thisday asked him
shortly after the lecture whether he would support Buhari for a second term,
Obasanjo retorted that it was not the right time to talk of supporting Buhari’s
second term ambition. It was obvious something was ominous.
Obasanjo’s letter to Buhari of January 23 2018 entitled ‘The Way Out: A
Clarion Call for Coalition for Nigeria Movement’, was a mixture of home truths,
patronising comments and harsh words which will resonate well with Buhari’s
critics.
Basically in the letter Obasanjo advised Buhari not to run again - mentioning
his weaknesses in the areas of handling the economy, foreign policy and his
poor understanding of the “dynamics of internal politics”. He rejected both the
APC and the PDP as likely to lead the country out of the woods and called for
a national movement, which he called Coalition Nigeria. As he put it:
“We need a Coalition for Nigeria, CN. Such a Movement at this juncture needs
not be a political party but one to which all well-meaning Nigerians can
belong. That Movement must be a coalition for democracy, good governance,
social and economic well-being and progress.
“Coalition to salvage and redeem our country. You can count me with such a
Movement. Last time, we asked, prayed and worked for change and God
granted our request. This time, we must ask, pray and work for change with
unity, security and progress. And God will again grant us.”
There are several observations regarding Obasanjo’s latest intervention:
One, Obasanjo embodies so many contradictions. Whatever he accuses any
regime he wants to bring down - from corruption to impunity - he was also
probably guilty of such during his time either as military head of State or
during his eight years as civilian President. This has made some people to
dismiss his interventions as self serving and undeserving. I believe such a
manner of viewing Obasanjo interventions is simplistic and naïve. The point is
that whatever one thinks of Obasanjo, he remains one of the most respected
African statesmen by the international community. He leverages on this by
choosing the time and place to launch an attack on a government he wants to
bring down. Quite often when Obasanjo begins his attacks (and largely
because he waits until there is an undercurrent of momentum against such a
government), those criticisms often become self-propelling both at home and
abroad. Obasanjo has a 100 per cent track record in bringing down any
government he comes after. And that is not a joke!
Two, whether Buhari heeds Obasanjo’s advice or not, the letter, just like the
one he wrote to Jonathan in the run-up to the 2015 presidential election, has
irrevocably changed the permutations for 2019. For one, the letter is likely to
embolden several people within the APC to mount a challenge against Buhari’s
candidacy.
It is possible that the letter may have an opposite effect on Buhari - heighten
his resolve to contest even if he had not made up his mind to do so before
the letter. Certainly as a retired General, he may not want to be seen as
chickening out of the contest because of Obasanjo’s letter. If Buhari decides to
go for a second term (as I believe he will do), and if Obasanjo’s antecedents
are anything to go by, he will most likely constitute himself as the spiritual
director of the opposition - both at home and abroad. Since Obasanjo is not a
man known to go back on his vomit, he is unlikely to be persuaded to drop
his opposition to Buhari’s second term ambition. We are therefore likely to be
in for a dog fight.
Three, largely because of Obasanjo’s track record in bringing down
governments and his international connections, the letter is likely to impact
psychologically on Buhari’s cabinet and close advisers. We will therefore be
watching out for the fickleness of human nature. I will therefore not be
surprised if some of the Governors, advisers and members of the President’s
inner cabinet who always pretend to love Buhari more than God loves him
(even though many can see through their sycophancy that their only loyalty is
to their ambitions and pockets) begin to gradually distance themselves from
him. We are likely to witness ‘doublespeak’ as these characters begin
scheming for relevance in whichever direction they believe the next
dispensation will come from.
Four, while the issue of whether a government has performed well or not will
always be subjective in our type of clime - depending on which side one finds
himself/herself in our fault lines or active controversies of the day -
Obasanjo’s solution, a national movement, Coalition of Nigerians (CN), can be
interrogated: The first challenge for such a coalition is whether its members
will fall from heaven or whether members will still be adult Nigerians who
have already internalized the ‘Nigerian factor’. Another challenge is that such
a movement will inevitably be a special purpose vehicle (SPV) just to remove
Buhari from power - just as the APC was an SPV used to remove Jonathan
from power. Coalitions of this nature are by definition assemblages of people
with different ambitions, ideological inclinations and political tendencies. Once
the main goal of the SPV is accomplished, the internal contradictions within
the movement will come to the fore - as we have seen with the APC.
Additionally, a movement, such as that proposed by Obasanjo, is inherently
unstable and suffers from problems of routinization because such movements
are usually held together by one or two charismatic individuals. Once such
leaders are no longer with the movement, it begins to crumble. Remarkably
Obasanjo did not specify how such a movement will field candidates for offices
and whether it will be lawful for movements that are not registered as political
parties to contest for offices.
Five, it can also not be ruled out that at least part of the reasons for
Obasanjo’s proposal for a Coalition of Nigerians is to ensure that his sworn
enemy, Atiku Abubakar, if he emerges as the PDP’s presidential candidate,
does not benefit from his move against Buhari. If this hunch is true, it raises
questions of whether Obasanjo’s solution has been well thought-through or
whether he will also turn on the beneficiaries of the movement soon
afterwards - if he succeeds in removing Buhari.
Six, given Obasanjo’s excellent track record in bringing down any government
he moves against and equally extremely poor track record in leadership
recruitment (he has been dissatisfied with all the leaders he handpicked and
anointed), it may be germane to find a way of harnessing Obasanjo’s skills in
pulling down unpopular governments while making up for his poor skills in
leadership recruitment. One solution may be the Alan Greenspan option:
Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve of the United States (the
equivalent of our Central Bank) from 1987 to 2006, was once asked the secret
of his success as “Washington’s resident wizard.” His answer was that he
always did the opposite of advice proffered by the IMF. May be since we know
Obasanjo skill is in pulling down unpopular governments but not in leadership
recruitment, we may move against anyone anointed by Obasanjo and choose
from the pool of those he refuses to approve.